SENATE ENERGY, UTILITIES AND COMMUNICATIONS COMMITTEE

INFORMATIONAL HEARING
 

Electricity Outlook – Summer 2005 and Beyond
James Shetler – Assistant General Manager, Energy Supply

Sacramento Municipal Utility District
EXPANDED SMUD CONTROL AREA
 

February 22, 2005

RESPONSES TO COMMITTEE QUESTIONS

GENERAL: SMUD operates a control area that includes its service territory and the Western Area Power Administration – Sierra Nevada Region (Western) along with the direct connected loads served by Western. The attached Figure 1 provides an overview of the expanded SMUD Control Area.

• SMUD Control Area Loads in 2005 and 2006 – Loads in the expanded SMUD Control Area include loads of SMUD, the City of Redding, the City of Roseville, and the directly connected loads of Western, including the Bureau of Reclamation’s Tracy Pumping Plant and the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory. The monthly peak loads of these entities for the May through September period of 2005 and 2006 are aggregated and summarized on the attached Table A. Annual peak load for the entire control area in 2005 is 3494 MW, and for 2006 is 3581 MW.
   
• SMUD Control Area Resources in 2005 and 2006 – Resources in the expanded SMUD Control Area include the generation assets of SMUD, the Bureau of Reclamation (marketed by Western), the City of Redding, the City of Roseville, and Calpine Energy Services. While the resources of SMUD, Redding and Roseville are used entirely to meet in-area load in the control area during the summer peak, Calpine and Western generation are used in part to meet in-area loads during the peak period and in part are exported to meet load obligations outside the expanded SMUD Control Area. For purposes of this presentation, the portion of Western and Calpine resources serving load in the expanded SMUD Control Area are included in control area resources, while resources of Calpine and Western serving load outside the expanded SMUD Control Area are not included. Resources committed to serving load in the expanded SMUD Control Area during the peak load period of 2005 total 3889 MW, while in 2006 3958 MW are so committed.
   
• Load Forecasting and Balancing: In general, loads are forecasted on an annual, monthly ahead and day ahead basis. On an annual basis, twelve monthly peak loads are forecasted and a mix of generation and purchases are assembled in a portfolio to ensure forecasted loads and NERC and WECC mandated reserve and regulation burdens can be met reliably. On a seasonal and month ahead basis, resource availability is fine tuned (i.e. water year results for hydro are reviewed, transmission deratings are included, etc.) and additional resources are purchased from the market in the event more are needed or excess are sold into the market if excess resources are available. In general, resources sufficient to meet 90 percent of the individual monthly peak load forecast are secured by October of the prior year, 100 percent are secured, for the summer months, by at least April of the current year, and 100% of remaining months is done on a month ahead basis. On a daily basis the load forecast is fine-tuned and resources are purchased or sold accordingly. Western and SMUD jointly maintain their systems in load resource balance and both contribute to the control area interchange balancing with adjacent control areas.
   
• Resource Planning and Procurement: Individual Load Serving Entities (LSE’s) in the expanded SMUD Control Area are responsible for forecasting load and developing plans to build or acquire resources to meet forecasted load. In general, LSE’s load forecasts are done for at least a 5-year planning horizon and plans are developed to acquire resources, through purchase or construction, acquiring 90% of forecasted load by the fall of the year prior to the forecasted load. The remainder is acquired as outlined as above.

Figure 1
Expanded SMUD Control Area

Table A
Expanded SMUD Control Area